A Combined Forecast Method Integrating Contextual Knowledge
نویسندگان
چکیده
In the framework of TEI@I methodology, this paper proposes a combined forecast method integrating contextual knowledge (CFMIK). With the help of contextual knowledge, this method considers the effects of those factors that cannot be explicitly included in the forecast model, and thus it can efficiently decrease the forecast error resulted from the irregular events. Through a container throughput forecast case, this paper compares the performance of CFMIK, AFTER (a combined forecast method) and 3 types of single models (ARIMA, BP-ANN, exponential smoothing). The results show that the performance of CFMIK is better than that of the others. DOI: 10.4018/978-1-4666-3998-0.ch019
منابع مشابه
A conceptual framework of contextual factors affecting knowledge transfer using meta-synthesis method
Since knowledge is currently considering as one of the most critical resources in organizations, knowledge management has an essential role in organizational success. Recently knowledge transfer has become a fast, growing, innovative, and essential research theme in the management domain. This paper proposes a comprehensive framework to have effective knowledge transfer in projects, especially ...
متن کاملForecast of Iran’s Electricity Consumption Using a Combined Approach of Neural Networks and Econometrics
Electricity cannot be stored and needs huge amount of capital so producers and consumers pay special attention to predict electricity consumption. Besides, time-series data of the electricity market are chaotic and complicated. Nonlinear methods such as Neural Networks have shown better performance for predicting such kind of data. We also need to analyze other variables affecting electricity c...
متن کاملThe Variance-covariance Method using IOWGA Operator for Tourism Forecast Combination
Three combination methods commonly used in tourism forecasting are the simple average method, the variance-covariance method and the discounted MSFE method. These methods assign the different weights that can not change at each time point to each individual forecasting model. In this study, we introduce the IOWGA operator combination method which can overcome the defect of previous three combin...
متن کاملPresenting the Strategic Orientation Model of Knowledge Transfer in Applied Scientific Comprehensive University
Purpose: The knowledge transfer in educational systems, especially higher education plays an important role in improving their educational and non-educational functions. Therefore, the purpose of this study was presenting the strategic orientation model of knowledge transfer in Applied Sciences Comprehensive University. Methodology: This study in terms of purpose was applied and in terms of im...
متن کاملCombined Forecasts: What to Do When One Model Isn’t Good Enough
SAS® High-Performance Forecasting 4.1 offers a new, innovative process for automatically combining forecasts. Forecast combination, also called ensemble forecasting, is the subject of many academic papers in statistical and forecasting journals; it is a known technique for improving forecast accuracy and reducing variability of the resulting forecasts. By integrating these methods into a single...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید
ثبت ناماگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید
ورودعنوان ژورنال:
- IJKSS
دوره 2 شماره
صفحات -
تاریخ انتشار 2011